The Community Policy Analysis Center

Scenarios

“Scenarios” provide counties with information on what might happen in alternative future conditions. These are “what if” scenarios, such as “what would happen to employment in the county if Employer X closed?” or “What would happen to the housing market in the county if our population continues to grow?” Community Advisory Panels usually identify the most critical local scenarios for CPAC analysis.

    • Adair County Scenarios

    • Staff: CPAC staff, Advisory Panel
      Status: Completed
      Date: October 2002

      Water Quality has become a major policy concern. The Missouri Watershed Initiative has undertaken a pilot program in the Long Branch reservoir area to address this issue. The program seeks to bring together local stakeholders, policy makers and researchers with the goal of developing a consensual policy for sustainable water quality policy.

      CPAC's baseline for the Long Branch Watershed yields a ten year projection of the area's critical economic and demographic variables. This information provides the Long Branch Advisory Council with a picture of the economic issues and needs faced by local communities.



    • Callaway County Scenarios

    • The Regional Economic Contributions of Kingdom City Businesses

      Staff: Morgan M. Mundell, Anna E. Kovalyova, Thomas G. Johnson
      Status: Completed
      Date: July 2002

      Businesses in Kingdom City, Missouri have a positive fiscal impact on the surrounding area and make sizable contributions to the local economy. Many business owners feel that their economic vitality is derived from being located in a convenient area for traffic from the interstate and highway to access their services and to purchase goods.

      Therefore, local business owners believe that relocating the existing interchange on I-70 around Kingdom City would be detrimental to their businesses. This study shows the overall impact of potential (hypothetical) closure of businesses in Kingdom City on the Callaway County’s economy.


    • City of Columbia Scenarios Study
    • Staff: Jill Lucht, Tom Johnson, Dennis Robinson, Tracy Greever-Rice, Amy Lake
      Status: Completed
      Date: June 2009


    • Howell County Scenarios

    • The Economic Importance of Further and Higher Education in Howell County

      Staff: James K. Scott, Ph.D.
      Status: Completed
      Date: January 2001

      This brief profile on the economic importance of Howell County’s Further and Higher Education is part of a joint project involving the Howell County Commission, South Central Career Center, Southwest Baptist University-Mountain View, Southwest Missouri State University-West Plains, and Howell County University Outreach and Extension. The project is designed to assist residents, community groups, businesses and local public officials in making key decisions about regional economic development, and the future quality of life in the County. Findings in this report are based on the activities and financial summaries from all higher education service providers for September 1, 1999 – August 31, 2000 – the most recent period possible.


    • Laclede County Scenarios

    • The Impacts of H.D. Lee Plant Closure in Laclede County

      Staff: Anna E. Kovalyova, Morgan M. Mundell
      Status: Completed
      Date: March 2003

      This project analyzes the overall impact of the H.D. Lee plant closure on a county economy. The project has been a collaborative effort between the County and the Community Policy Analysis Center. The initial impact of the laid-off workers is introduced in year 2003, and is examined through 2011. The report analyzes the baseline/forecasts prior to plant closure and the impact of plant closure as captured by the developed scenario, and draws the comparison between the two. The findings in this report are the result of an extensive analysis of the local economy, achieved through discussion with key public and private sector leaders throughout the community, and use of the Show Me Community Model, developed by CPAC.


    • Pettis County Scenarios

    • Economic Contribution of Tyson Foods

      Staff: CPAC stuff
      Status: Completed
      Date: 2000

      The purpose of this report is to look at the economic activities and linkages of the Tyson Foods processing plant located in Sedalia, Missouri. Representatives of Tyson Foods completed a survey that allowed us to measure the firm’s linkages to the rest of the economy, allowing the number of jobs and level of income in the County that are indirectly supported by Tyson Foods to be estimated. The key economic, demographic, and fiscal variables are calculated for Pettis County to represent what they would have been in 1998 if Tyson Foods did not exist, and are then projected to 2009.


    • Pike County Scenarios

    • Bowling Green Correctional Center Economic Impact Study

      Staff: Thomas G. Johnson, James K. Scott
      Status: Completed
      Date: December 1995

      This study estimates the economic impacts of the construction and operation of a new Missouri men's correctional center on the City of Bowling Green and Pike County . It projects economic and demographic impacts through the year 2002.


    • Saline County Scenarios

    • The Economic Importance of Health Care in Saline County

      Staff: Anna M. Cox, Kathleen K. Miller, James K. Scott
      Status: Completed
      Date: April 1999

      The purpose of this report is to provide more information about the economic importance of health care in the region, and to encourage discussion about the implications of how changes in the health care industry may affect the future of Saline County . This report first analyzes the economic impacts of the health care sector and measures the linkages health care has with other sectors in the Saline County economy. Next, employment and income in the local health care sector is examined over time, and then compared to the health care sectors in nearby counties. Finally, common measures of health care capacity are displayed for the county.

       

      The Impacts of a Proposed Saline County Use Tax: 1999 - 2007


      Staff: Anna M. Cox, Thomas G. Johnson, James K. Scott
      Status: Completed
      Date: March 1999

      This report was prepared at the request of the Steering Committee of the Saline County Study. This report estimates the effects of a use tax by first analyzing the impact of anticipated changes in local retail sales. The effect of these expected changes on county government revenues is then estimated. Finally, based on these changes and the recent experience of other counties, a range of revenues for the proposed County use tax is estimated.



Questions/Comments regarding this page or this web site are strongly encouraged and can be sent to
Community Policy Analysis Center, University of Missouri-Columbia
215 Middlebush Hall, Columbia, MO 65211
Telephone: (573)884-9009     Fax 573-882-2504